{"id":2585,"date":"2026-04-20T07:04:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T07:04:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ibvl.in\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/handling-the-cve-flood-with-epss-mon-apr-20th\/"},"modified":"2026-04-20T07:04:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T07:04:05","slug":"handling-the-cve-flood-with-epss-mon-apr-20th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ibvl.in\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/handling-the-cve-flood-with-epss-mon-apr-20th\/","title":{"rendered":"Handling the CVE Flood With EPSS, (Mon, Apr 20th)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Every morning, security people around the world face the same ritual: opening their vulnerability feed to find a lot of new CVE entries that appeared overnight. Over the past decade, this flood has become a defining challenge of modern defensive security. Some numbers[<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cvedetails.com\/browse-by-date.php\">1<\/a>]:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CVEs published in 2023: 29K+<\/li>\n<li>CVEs published in 2024: 40K+<\/li>\n<li>New CVEs per day: ~110<\/li>\n<li>Exploited in the wild: ~5-7%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The root cause of this explosion is structural: the security research community has grown dramatically, bug bounty programs, automated scanning has industrialised vulnerability discovery, and software supply chains expose orders of magnitude more attack surface than legacy monolithic architectures ever did. And don\u2019t forget AI used more and more to find vulnerabilities!<\/p>\n<p>Every CVE receives a CVSS (Common Vulnerability Scoring System) that is a score between 0 and 10 attempts to express the intrinsic severity of a vulnerability. This score is based on core questions like: How bad it is if exploited? How complex exploitation is?\u00a0What privileges are required? And what impact on confidentiality, integrity, and availability to expect?<\/p>\n<p>CVSS is a well-designed standard, and is\u00a0useful. But it remains challenging to perform the initial triage: Which CVEs deserve to be investigated first? A CVSS 9.8 that sits dormant in an obscure software is less dangerous in practice than a CVSS 6.5 actively chained in ransomware campaigns!<\/p>\n<p>The Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) was developed by FIRST (Forum of Incident Response and Security Teams)[<a href=\"https:\/\/www.first.org\/epss\/\">2<\/a>] and has gone through successive iterations since its public launch in 2021, with EPSS v3 released in March 2023 as the current production model. Its design philosophy is fundamentally different from CVSS: instead of rating theoretical impact, EPSS answers a probabilistic question.\u00a0We already talked about EPSS a long time ago[<a href=\"https:\/\/isc.sans.edu\/diary\/EPSScall+An+Exploit+Prediction+Scoring+System+App\/28732\">3<\/a>] but it does get enough attention from the community (IMHO)<\/p>\n<p>How does it work?<\/p>\n<p>EPSS\u00a0=\u00a0P(exploitation within 30 days | CVE is published)<br \/>\nScore range: 0.00001 \u2192 1.0 (probability)<br \/>\nModel: gradient-boosted machine learning (XGBoost)<br \/>\nInput features: ~1,400 signals updated daily<br \/>\nData sources: exploit databases, darkweb telemetry, threat intel feeds, PoC repositories, NVD metadata<\/p>\n<p>Theory is nice but let\u2019s be more pragmatic! FIRST offers an API to query for EPSS scores:<\/p>\n<pre style=\"background: rgb(238, 238, 238); border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 5px 10px;\">\n$ curl -s https:\/\/api.first.org\/data\/v1\/epss?cve=CVE-2026-23099 | jq .\n{\n  \"status\": \"OK\",\n  \"status-code\": 200,\n  \"version\": \"1.0\",\n  \"access\": \"public\",\n  \"total\": 1,\n  \"offset\": 0,\n  \"limit\": 100,\n  \"data\": [\n    {\n      \"cve\": \"CVE-2026-23099\",\n      \"epss\": \"0.000180000\",\n      \"percentile\": \"0.044770000\",\n      \"date\": \"2026-04-19\"\n    }\n  ]\n}<\/pre>\n<p>How to automate this? Most SIEM or log management solutions can interact with external services through APIs. Let me show you how I enrich my vulnerabilities alert in Wazuh.<\/p>\n<p>I set up an integration[<a href=\"https:\/\/documentation.wazuh.com\/current\/integrations-guide\/index.html\">4<\/a>] that will query the EPSS score of CVEs detected in my environment:<\/p>\n<p>A Python script will be invoked when a vulnerability is detected (with alert group &#8220;vulnerability-detector&#8221;, the fetched EPSS score will be used to create a new alert with more relevant data:<\/p>\n<pre style=\"background: rgb(238, 238, 238); border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 5px 10px;\">\n&lt;integration&gt;\n  &lt;name&gt;custom-epss&lt;\/name&gt;\n  &lt;group&gt;vulnerability-detector&lt;\/group&gt;\n  &lt;alert_format&gt;json&lt;\/alert_format&gt;\n&lt;\/integration&gt;<\/pre>\n<p>The new rules:<\/p>\n<pre style=\"background: rgb(238, 238, 238); border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 5px 10px;\">\n&lt;group name=\"epss,vulnerability,enrichment\"&gt;\n  &lt;rule id=\"120200\" level=\"3\"&gt;\n    &lt;decoded_as&gt;json&lt;\/decoded_as&gt;\n    &lt;field name=\"integration\"&gt;epss&lt;\/field&gt;\n    &lt;description&gt;EPSS enrichment event received for $(epss.cve)&lt;\/description&gt;\n    &lt;options&gt;no_full_log&lt;\/options&gt;\n  &lt;\/rule&gt;\n\n  &lt;rule id=\"120201\" level=\"5\"&gt;\n    &lt;if_sid&gt;120200&lt;\/if_sid&gt;\n    &lt;field name=\"epss.risk_label\"&gt;low&lt;\/field&gt;\n    &lt;description&gt;EPSS: $(epss.cve) \u2014 Low exploitation probability (score=$(epss.score_pct)%)&lt;\/description&gt;\n  &lt;\/rule&gt;\n\n  &lt;rule id=\"120202\" level=\"9\"&gt;\n    &lt;if_sid&gt;120200&lt;\/if_sid&gt;\n    &lt;field name=\"epss.risk_label\"&gt;medium&lt;\/field&gt;\n    &lt;description&gt;EPSS: $(epss.cve) \u2014 Medium exploitation probability (score=$(epss.score_pct)%)&lt;\/description&gt;\n  &lt;\/rule&gt;\n\n  &lt;rule id=\"120203\" level=\"12\"&gt;\n    &lt;if_sid&gt;120200&lt;\/if_sid&gt;\n    &lt;field name=\"epss.risk_label\"&gt;high&lt;\/field&gt;\n    &lt;description&gt;EPSS: $(epss.cve) \u2014 High exploitation probability (score=$(epss.score_pct)%)&lt;\/description&gt;\n  &lt;\/rule&gt;\n\n  &lt;rule id=\"120204\" level=\"15\"&gt;\n    &lt;if_sid&gt;120200&lt;\/if_sid&gt;\n    &lt;field name=\"epss.risk_label\"&gt;critical&lt;\/field&gt;\n    &lt;description&gt;EPSS: $(epss.cve) \u2014 CRITICAL exploitation probability (score=$(epss.score_pct)%)&lt;\/description&gt;\n    &lt;group&gt;pci_dss_6.3.3,nist_800_53_SI.2,gdpr_IV_35.7.d,hipaa_164.308.a.5,tsc_CC7.1&lt;\/group&gt;\n  &lt;\/rule&gt;\n\n  &lt;rule id=\"120205\" level=\"3\"&gt;\n    &lt;if_sid&gt;120200&lt;\/if_sid&gt;\n    &lt;field name=\"epss.cached\"&gt;True&lt;\/field&gt;\n    &lt;description&gt;EPSS: $(epss.cve) \u2014 Score served from local cache (age &amp;lt; 24h)&lt;\/description&gt;\n  &lt;\/rule&gt;\n&lt;\/group&gt;<\/pre>\n<p>Here is an example of alert:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/isc.sans.edu\/diaryimages\/images\/isc-20260420-2.png\" style=\"width: 900px; height: 813px;\"><\/p>\n<p>The script sets the risk based on this:<\/p>\n<pre style=\"background: rgb(238, 238, 238); border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 5px 10px;\">\nif score &gt;= 0.90:\n    return \"critical\"\nif score &gt;= 0.50:\n    return \"high\"\nif score &gt;= 0.10:\n    return \"medium\"\nreturn \"low\"<\/pre>\n<p>The Python integration script is available here[<a href=\"https:\/\/xameco.be\/files\/custom-epss.py\">5<\/a>].<\/p>\n<p>[1] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cvedetails.com\/browse-by-date.php\">https:\/\/www.cvedetails.com\/browse-by-date.php<\/a><br \/>\n[2] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.first.org\/epss\/\">https:\/\/www.first.org\/epss\/<\/a><br \/>\n[3] <a href=\"https:\/\/isc.sans.edu\/diary\/EPSScall+An+Exploit+Prediction+Scoring+System+App\/28732\">https:\/\/isc.sans.edu\/diary\/EPSScall+An+Exploit+Prediction+Scoring+System+App\/28732<\/a><br \/>\n[4] <a href=\"https:\/\/documentation.wazuh.com\/current\/integrations-guide\/index.html\">https:\/\/documentation.wazuh.com\/current\/integrations-guide\/index.html<\/a><br \/>\n[5] <a href=\"https:\/\/xameco.be\/files\/custom-epss.py\">https:\/\/xameco.be\/files\/custom-epss.py<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Xavier Mertens (@xme)<br \/>\nXameco<br \/>\nSenior ISC Handler &#8211; Freelance Cyber Security Consultant<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/keybase.io\/xme\/key.asc\">PGP Key<\/a><\/p>\n<p> (c) SANS Internet Storm Center. https:\/\/isc.sans.edu Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United States License.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every morning, security people around the world face the same ritual: opening their vulnerability feed to find a lot of new CVE entries that appeared overnight. Over the past decade, this flood has become a defining challenge of modern defensive security. Some numbers[1]: CVEs published in 2023: 29K+ CVEs published in 2024: 40K+ New CVEs [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[91],"class_list":["post-2585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cybersecurity","tag-cybersecurity"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Handling the CVE Flood With EPSS, (Mon, Apr 20th) - Imperative Business Ventures Limited<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.ibvl.in\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/handling-the-cve-flood-with-epss-mon-apr-20th\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Handling the CVE Flood With EPSS, (Mon, Apr 20th) - Imperative Business Ventures Limited\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every morning, security people around the world face the same ritual: opening their vulnerability feed to find a lot of new CVE entries that appeared overnight. 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